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Warning: West Oz May Be Hostile to Order

Carissa Moore's career ranking record is eerily consistent. Since 2010, here's how she's landed on the Jeep Leaderboard. 2010: 3rd ... 2011: 1st ... 2012: 3rd ... 2013: 1st ... 2014: 3rd ... 2015: 1st ...2016: 3rd ... 2017: ?

Carissa Moore winning her Round Three heat. Carissa Moore's power approach is a perfect fit for the wild open-ocean conditions prevalent in Western Australia. WSL / Kelly Cestari

Obviously, in order for this peculiar pattern to hold Moore will need to rebound quickly from her 5th place finish at Snapper. Fortunately for her the next stop is Margaret River, where statistically she has a history of dominating.

Carissa's Heat Winning Percentage (HWP) at Margies is a whopping 85 percent, more than 6 percent higher than Tyler Wright and Courtney Conlogue. She's made three Finals appearances there, and won two of them.

Stephanie Gilmore Gilmore has yet to make a Final at Margaret River. She's been stopped twice in the Semis. WSL / Kelly Cestari

But Carissa isn't the only surfer with a lengthy statistical pattern on her side. Steph Gilmore just won the Roxy Pro for the 6th time. In her five previous Roxy Pro wins, Steph went on to win the World Title four times. That trend also can't be ignored.

Clearly something's gotta give here. The universe, after all, is utterly hostile to order. Everything breaks down. And on the women's side of the ledger there are more radical forces than ever ready to wipe the slate clean.

Tyler Wright after winning the Drug Aware Margaret River Pro. Wright's confidence soared after her win in West Oz last year, catapulting her toward her first World Title. WSL / Ed Sloane

Tyler Wright is the obvious disruptor. The defending event champ and reigning World Champ has three Finals appearances at Margaret River. And while her 78 percent HWP isn't quite as high as Moore's, she's racked up eight total heat scores in the excellent range, which translates to 16.00 points or higher, or an average wave score 8. That's incredible.

Moore has turned in four excellent scoring heats at Margaret River, the same amount as Courtney Conlogue, who represents the other huge standout performer in West Oz. Courtney has two Finals appearances out there, including her win in 2015. Her Average Heat Score (AHS) is 14.92, which is the highest in the women's field. Her HWP of 76.47 places is third best at Margies.

Courtney Conlogue winning her Semifinal heat. Courtney Conlogue will be leaning heavily on Margaret River to get back in this year's title race. Given her track record in West Oz, she's one of the clear favorites. WSL / Ed Sloane

After back-to-back runner-up finishes on the Jeep Leaderboard in 2015, 16, Conlogue is still breathing fire. Mix in the rest of the rising women's pack, including local rookie Bronte Macaulay and we've got ourselves some fun surfing to watch, and math homework to do along the way...have fun.

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