Updated Tuesday, 13h August 2019
EVENT WINDOW: August 13-18th 2019
Small but surfable throughout, averaging around two to three feet, with onshore winds picking up in the afternoons
Today's chart contains a high pressure centred over the Azores and extending northeast into Biscay. There is a trough of low pressure on its northern periphery with a moderate westerly fetch pushing some swell into the contest area. Over the next day or so a better-defined low develops, expected northwest of Ireland by late Wednesday, with that westerly airstream persisting. A bigger system is forecast to develop by Thursday, expected west of Scotland by Friday, with a stronger westerly fetch on its southern flank. This could generate something more solid for later in the weekend.
On Wednesday expect small or very small surf, with wave heights struggling to exceed two feet for most of the day. Winds are light in the morning and moderate onshores from the west-southwest in the afternoon.
Thursday sees an increase in wave heights to around three feet and more lined up, but hampered by persistent onshores from the northwest, moderate perhaps gusting fresh by mid-afternoon.
On Friday the swell weakens slightly, averaging around two or three feet. Conditions improve, with light variable winds in the morning and light perhaps moderate onshores from the northwest in the afternoon.
On Saturday the small swell persists, around two feet or so, perhaps increasing later, with moderate onshores from the southwest, becoming fresh later.
The forecast for Sunday is currently showing wave heights of around two or three feet, although we could see a more solid pulse of swell from that developing system. Winds are expected to be light to moderate onshores from the northwest.
Forecast reliabilities are very good until around Sunday, when things could change depending on the trajectory and strength of that new system.
Next update: Thursday 15th August