Brief Overview: Good-size S swell eases Thursday and Friday with clean, rippable windows of surf Stronger S swell this weekend but conditions less favorable Conditions likely to improve Monday into Tuesday before a potential return of unfavorable winds late in the waiting period.
THURSDAY 23rd: 6-8'+ faces, clean in the AM with light texture in the PM SWELL: Healthy mid-period S swell with overhead surf and sets going 2-3' overhead, easing slightly through the day. Very organized surf but potentially a little lully. WIND: Light offshore N winds in the morning. Then a light to light+ ESE breeze in the afternoon. TIDES: 1.4' low at 5:20am, 2.8' high at 10:05am, 1.2' low at 5:41pm
FRIDAY 24th: Easing 5-7' faces, clean in the AM with some texture and lump in the PM SWELL: Easing S swell offers head high to 1-2' overhead surf, strongest in the AM and easing more in the PM. Again, a little lully. WIND: Light offshore N winds in the morning. Then light+ SSW/SW breezes in the afternoon. TIDES: 1.1' low at 5:55am, 2.9' high at 1:23am, 1.2' low at 6:21pm
SATURDAY 25th: Rising 4-7' becoming 6-10' faces, best window early to mid AM before moderate to breezy onshore winds develop SWELL: Overlapping mix of easing, mid-period S swell and new, long-period S/SSW swell sets up rebuilding surf. Shoulder-head high to 1-2' overhead surf is expected in the early morning with stronger well overhead surf in the afternoon and evening. A little lully in the morning but becoming more consistent through the day. WIND: Clean with light offshore winds early before stronger SW winds develop. Exact timing of the unfavorable wind switch currently expected mid-morning. TIDES: 0.7' low at 6:31am, 3.0' high at 12:06pm, 1.2' low at 7:07pm
SUNDAY 26th: Strong 8-12' faces, disorganized conditions through the day with onshore S/SSE winds SWELL: Strong mid-period S swell peaks with widespread double overhead surf. Local windswell also blends in to make for mixed-up surf. Above-average consistency. WIND: Moderate onshore S/SSE winds. TIDES: 0.5' low at 7:15am, 3.0' high at 12:50pm, 1.1' low at 8:03pm
MONDAY 27th: Easing 6-10' faces, light onshore winds but conditions still lumpy/jumbled SWELL: Mid-period S swell continues with plenty of size and consistency. Surf in the well overhead to double overhead range is expected, easing just a notch over the PM hours. WIND: Light onshore SE/ESE breezes. Semi-clean faces but leftover lump from the previous onshore winds. Conditions best at The Point with the more easterly wind direction. TIDES: 0.3' low at 8:08am, 3.1' high at 1:47pm, 1.1' low at 8:49pm
Outlook: We're on pace for a good start day one of the event on Thursday with mid-period S swell and favorable morning winds. Size expectations have increased after reviewing observations of the incoming swell. Overhead surf is expected with sets hitting 2-3' overhead. Best sets may hit double overhead in the morning when the swell is strongest. Surf is overall looking well organized with defined sets. However, due to the location, strength, and movement of the storm that produced our southerly swell, we expect the largest waves to be inconsistent and lully compared to what we'd normally expect. Light offshore N winds are due in the morning with light+ onshore developing ESE breezes in the afternoon. The swell and wind combination looks to favor The Point over Barrinha. Friday sees a bit less size than Thursday but the morning hours still offer quality surf with favorable conditions. Look for mostly clean surf in the head high range with still some sets hitting the 1-2' overhead mark. Size eases over the afternoon and onshore breezes increase, but surf remains contestable. The outlook for the weekend into early next week has seen some changes. We now expect more substantial surf but local winds and conditions are in question. The track of a large storm system over the southwest Atlantic has trended further north which will result in solid mid-to-longer period south swell. However, this strong surf will be accompanied by periods of onshore winds. Saturday morning may have a rather brief window with new, rising S swell and light winds in the early morning before stronger SW winds move in and degrade the quality by mid-morning - we'll be watching that timing closely over the next few days. Sunday looks like a solid day of double overhead surf but with rather disorganized conditions thanks to moderate onshore winds. The swell starts to come down a notch for Monday but local winds and conditions are likely to see improvements. That being said, the surf quality/shape on Monday looks a bit jumbled and mixed up with lighter onshore winds. Tuesday is expected to be a cleaner day of waves, at least in the morning, with lingering S swell in the head high to 1-2' overhead range and favorable NE winds. The outlook for last couple days of the waiting period will partially rely on the progress of a low pressure system that moves off Uruguay on the 28th. Although uncertainty is higher during this timeframe with computer model guidance not in great agreement, winds ahead of this system may be OK for a window of semi-clean conditions and lingering S swell on Wednesday morning the 29th. Rebuilding surf is possible on Thursday the 30th but we may be looking at onshore winds as well.
Next Update: Wednesday afternoon (local time)