Official Surfline Forecast: SHISEIDO Tahiti Pro

Official Surfline Forecast: SHISEIDO Tahiti Pro

Brief Overview:

· Small surf for the first three or four days of event window

· Medium size swell for the 15th-16th is increasingly likely

· Last three or so days of the event window currently look slow

FRIDAY 11th: 4-5' faces, occ set to 6'. Lully/slow. Moderate offshore wind SWELL/SURF: Mix of short/mid period leftovers from the current swell and new, long period SW swell from a distant source. Likely slow/lully, especially over the afternoon as the shorter period SW swell fades and we rely mainly on the pulsey, long period SW swell for surf.
WIND: ESE trades 12-15kts.

SATURDAY 12th: Slow 3-4 occ. 5' faces, largest in AM. Moderate offshore wind SWELL/SURF: Decreasing surf as all swells ease. Strongest in the morning but still slow on sets.
WIND: ESE-E trades 10-13kts.

SUNDAY 13th: 3-4' faces. Lighter offshore wind SWELL/SURF: New SE swell builds but largely misses Teahupo'o. Some sets show up the reef, shoulder high or so. Minor SW swell mixing in.
WIND: ESE-E trades 8-12kts.

MONDAY 14th: Slight building trend with 3-5' faces. Side-offshore wind SWELL/SURF: Small, new, mid period SW swell fills in with some lingering energy out of the SE. Surf should come up slightly from Sunday but top out around head high (and be on the weak side by local standards).
WIND: ESE-SE trades 9-12kts.

TUESDAY 15th: 5-8' faces. Building and possibly breezy Side/offshore wind SWELL/SURF: New, mid period SW-SSW swell looks increasingly likely to build in. Sets could run a couple to perhaps a few feet overhead. Stay tuned.
WIND: ESE-SE trades 12-18kts.

Swell/Surf Outlook There are no big changes from our last update on incoming swells. Things continue to look slow/small to kick off the event window and for the first couple days of the event. On Friday the 11th we will see a mix of swells running - leftovers from today's SW/SSW swell and some new, long period SW swell from a very distant source.

The mix of swells should be good for sets in the head high'ish range but it will likely be slow/lully on those sets. The long period swell is from a storm that was strongest in the Southern Ocean nearly 5000 miles away (just south of Western and South Australia), leading to some long lulls.

Going into the weekend, we should see a decline in SW swell on Saturday. Mid period SSE-SE swell will build from a low now to the southeast of Tahiti, but that is expected to largely bypass Teahupo'o and the surf overall will probably be smaller than Friday, dropping below head high.

Similar deal on Sunday with the surf below the head high range. Monday should see a little bump up from what will be a multi-day run of swell from the same storm, initially starting from the SW and eventually transitioning to the S-SSE, reflecting the track of the nearby storm.

Sets on Monday should bump back into the head high range, although will probably be a little soft/weak by local standards due to the shorter period (10-12 seconds).

The largest surf of the event window remains on track for mid month, and the details are slowly becoming clearer. Odds are increasing for overhead surf on Tuesday the 15th from SW trending SSW swell. Wednesday the 16th could go up another notch and there is at least potential for surf pushing into the double overhead range, as well direction trends more SSW-S. This swell direction would lead to long and more drawn-out barrels with less critical sections on the west bowl.

Wind does look like it will rebuild for the mid month swell and it will probably be breezy. The expected wind direction is not perfect but is ok- SE to ESE. Stay tuned, we'll slowly work out the details in the next few days.

The surf will likely drop off through the day on Thursday the 17th and, at this point, the last three days of the event window look quite small with strong tradewinds.


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