2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro Portugal

Updated: Wednesday, March 13th

Brief Overview:

• Mid-period west swell Thursday but onshore southerly winds increase
• Smaller leftover swell Friday with rideable but relatively weak surf
• Long-period W swell Saturday offers stronger surf with jumbled/textured but decent conditions

THURSDAY 14th: 4-6'+ faces in AM ease to 4-5' in PM. Light+ to moderate S wind in the morning increases to moderate SSW/SW wind in the afternoon. SWELL/SURF: Shorter-to-mid period W swell slowly eases. WIND: S wind in the AM at 8-11kts for textured to semi-bumpy conditions. Wind shifts SSW/SW at 10-14kts with bumpy/disorganized conditions over the PM.

FRIDAY 15th: 3-4' faces. Light+ to moderate S wind in the morning shifts SSW/SW for the afternoon. SWELL/SURF: Fading short-period W swell offers one of the smallest day of waves during the contest window. WIND: Light+ to moderate S trending SSW/SW wind at 6-11kts with textured to semi-bumpy conditions

SATURDAY 16th: 4-7' faces in AM build to 6-8' occasional 10' in PM. Light+ SSE wind in the morning shifts SW in the afternoon before potentially easing late. SWELL/SURF: New, longer period W swell builds in with largest surf over the PM hours. Sets are well organized but biggest waves are somewhat inconsistent. WIND: Light+ SSE AM wind at 6-9kts shifts SW in the PM for textured/jumbled conditions. Watching for a window late PM where the SW wind backs off and becomes light.

Detailed Forecast Outlook
The mid-period west swell we saw slowly build in through Wednesday will gradually ease over the next couple days. However, a weak frontal boundary will slide into the region to set up a pattern of onshore south to southwest wind at Supertubos both Thursday and Friday. While the morning on Thursday will have waves in the shoulder-head high to a bit overhead zone, the increasing onshore wind will result in textured/bumpy and disorganized conditions. A lighter southerly wind pattern is expected Friday but size of the surf drops into the chest high range. Although each day will see lightest wind in the early morning, the pre-dawn high tides likely make the surf look a bit slow and soft.

The next round of long-period west swell incoming for the weekend has developed within an expansive fetch between broad low pressure over the central Atlantic and high pressure north of the Bahamas. Observed wind speeds topping 40-45kts along with sea heights into the 30-foot range are positive signs. However, it appears that the front end of this swell is slightly underperforming the computer swell model expectations. As a result, I have tweaked Saturday's surf heights down a notch but the surf still looks fairly strong at Supertubos. The early morning on the 6:45am high tide will be the smallest window of the day with waves in the shoulder-head high to a couple feet overhead. More size filters in through the morning with sets going 1-3' overhead midday into the afternoon with occasional larger sets likely hitting the double overhead range on the PM tide push. This swell will travel over 2000 miles across the Atlantic which will make sets organized but consistency may be below average. Also, the longer swell period (15-17 seconds) should lead to walled/closed-out shape at times, especially around the low tide just after noon.

Local conditions on Saturday continue to look decent but not ideal. The onshore southerly wind overnight Friday should leave some jumble/morning sickness in the line-up. Plus, the sideshore south-southeast wind in the morning adds some sideshore texture. We'll see the wind direction swing around more onshore south to southwest from the late morning into the afternoon but the overall strength of the wind is expected to remain under 10kts. We should also see the wind start to ease over the last couple hours of the day for marginal improvements. Overall, the strength of the wind will not be too strong to ruin the surf but the lump/jumble/texture along with stretched-out swell lines should make the surf tricky at times. Despite conditions looking far from flawless, there are likely to be moments with semi-clean wave faces so Saturday certainly looks contestable on the whole.

Next Update: Thursday, March 14th (afternoon local time)