The United States' hurricane season doesn't officially start until June 1, but the Atlantic Ocean is already stirring.
Weather forecasters are currently keeping an eye on an atmospheric disturbance north of the Bahamas that could very well form into a strong low pressure system over the next few days. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is reporting that they are giving the disturbance a 70 percent chance of developing into a subtropical storm.
"Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a subtropical depression or storm is likely to form this weekend while it moves northeastward over the western Atlantic," said the NHC's John Cangialosi.
At the moment, forecast models show that the storm will likely not make a direct hit on the U.S. mainland, but could impact the Bahamas, bringing wind and rain.
For surfers, this early start to the storm season means there's a good chance of seeing some waves along Florida's east coast and into select areas of the Caribbean. The size and consistency, as well as where the waves eventually shows up depends on how the disturbance develops in the coming days.
"Factoring in available climate data and the consensus of these early outlooks, it looks to be a very busy season in the tropical Atlantic. This can translate to more opportunities for swell and surf - but with more storms come more chances for land impact," explained Surfline forecaster Mike Watson in a hurricane outlook piece published last week.
If this seems like an exceptionally early start to the tropical storm season on the U.S. it's because it is, but it's not out of the recent norm. The last five years has seen the early formation of tropical systems. Last year, subtropical storm Andrea formed on May 20.
If this disturbance does become a subtropical storm if would be called "Arthur" based on the current naming convention.