Updated: Thursday night, May 6th (Local Time)

Brief Overview

  • Friday 7th: Overhead surf with onshore wind. Likely off day.
  • Saturday 8th: Strong surf with onshore wind. Likely off day.
  • Sunday 9th: Overhead surf with onshore wind. Likely off day.
  • Monday 10th: Overhead surf with better wind. Likely run day.

Daily Overview

FRIDAY 7th: Holding 8-10' occ. 12' faces AM, possibly building late. Onshore S wind and bumpy/choppy
SWELL/SURF: SW swell is expected to continue at similar levels to Thursday for most of the day. We may see a building trend late as new, long period SW swell fills in. Stay tuned.
WIND: S wind 8-12kts for most of the day.

SATURDAY 8th: 10-12' occ. 15' faces as new SW swell fills in/peaks. Onshore W wind, lightest early
SWELL/SURF: New, long period SW swell should fill in and peak. Not as large as the swell that just occurred but still solid.
WIND: Light onshore W wind early. Light to moderate onshore W wind builds in the afternoon 7-11kts.

SUNDAY 9th: 8-12' faces. Onshore W wind and bumpy
SWELL/SURF: Older SW fades as a new and more westerly SW to WSW swell potentially fills in during the later afternoon to level the surf off.
WIND: Onshore W wind 9-12kts in the morning may ease some for the afternoon.

MONDAY 10th: Holding to slow fading 8-10 occ. 12' faces. Light offshore AM wind and cleaner
SWELL/SURF: Mid period SW to WSW swell should hold in the morning before easing over the afternoon. Improved surf with better wind increasingly likely.
WIND: Light offshore ENE to NE wind in the earlier morning trends light+ N to NW in the afternoon 6-8kts for a bit of bump.

Swell/Surf Outlook

The wind forecast continues to look challenging over the next few days - mainly onshore with some pockets of light early morning wind on Thursday and Saturday (although still likely with leftover lump and bump). See the above for the specific daily details.

The new swell we have been watching for filled in late this afternoon/evening and the Cape Nat buoy is up to a respectable 2.5+ meters at 17+ seconds as of 9:40PM. This long period SW swell should hold on Thursday and get reinforcements into Friday for surf running in the overhead to double overhead range. Best window of opportunity in the next couple days should be Thursday morning, with more bump Thursday afternoon and especially on Friday.

Larger SW swell remains on track to build late Friday but strongest on Saturday. While we still don't expect this swell to be as strong as what we saw to open the event, it will be larger than Thu-Fri with solid surf in the double overhead range and largerst sets pushing toward 3x overhead (~15' faces). Wind is again mainly onshore, although a light window is possible early Saturday.

By Sunday the long period SW swell will be trending down, but we may also see a new, mid period SW to WSW swell fill in during the afternoon/evening hours from a nearby fetch that is expected to develop over the weekend. This wind and seas within the fetch don't look especially strong - topping out around 30-35kts and 20-25', respectively - but the close proximity of the storm should help to enhance size. At this point model guidance indicates surf will continue in the well overhead to double overhead range (roughly 8-12' faces) later Sunday through Monday morning but we'll want to see this storm pull together later this week to refine the details.

Onshore wind likely continues on Sunday but should improve Monday as high pressure moves over the southwest. Wind on Monday doesn't look quite as good as what we were seeing on the forecast charts yesterday, but it should still be an improvement over what we expect the next few days and the Box could be a viable option (especially in the morning). Stay tuned.

Smaller, but still decent size surf running a bit overhead is expected for Tuesday and local wind looks favorable for the morning. A larger SW swell is possible for Wednesday, building primarily during the second half of the day. We may see a significant increase in SE to S wind on Wednesday as well. Stay tuned.

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