Forecast Updated: Monday morning, May 17th (Local Time)
- Tue: Swell should slowly ease with improved wind. Possible run day.
- Wed: Rippable leftovers with likely offshore wind. Possible run day.
Please note that surf size below is given in face height. Local-scale is roughly half the size
TUESDAY 25th: Fading 8-10' faces AM, smaller PM. Potential for improved wind.
SWELL/SURF: SW swell likely trends down but is still solid in the morning with sets running well overhead up to double overhead.
WIND: Uncertainty remains on the wind but still a chance for decent to pretty good conditions. Overnight S wind may have some leftover bump and lump first thing, but light cross/offshore wind from the E to ENE could develop through the morning and conditions should improve. Stay tuned.
WEDNESDAY 26th: Fun 4-6' faces AM on the dropping/leftover swell, easing PM. Offshore wind and clean.
SWELL/SURF: Fading but still very rippable surf. Likely the smallest day in the remaining window but should also be the cleanest full day of surf.
WIND: Moderate to breezy offshore NE wind through the day.
New, mid period WSW to SW swell will build in for the weekend and offer medium to fairly solid surf. The storm that set up this swell was similar to the one that set up Thursday's swell. Compact but fairly strong and also pretty close. We expect a bit more size this weekend than what we saw yesterday, especially by Saturday late afternoon through Sunday after a slower start Saturday morning.
The wind forecast is complicated and very dynamic with several fronts impacting the region. However, it now looks like we'll see favorable windows both Saturday and Sunday, with periods of breezy onshore wind also mixing in. See above for specific details.
Very solid, new SW swell builds in for early next week and peaks Monday. We'll see both long period energy and mid period energy. The long period energy is developing now with the more distant -- but impressive -- fetch. We got a satellite pass right through the meat of the storm earlier today confirming seas in the 50-55' range. That's well above model guidance and satellite confirmed seas of that caliber are rare. The mid period energy will come as the storm comes close to and eventually impacts West Oz early next week.
The result will easily be the largest swell in the event window with very consistent surf to boot. It's going to be pumping storm surf on Monday with strong onshore wind.
Tuesday still has a good chance to clean up as the swell drops off through the day (but is still quite solid in the morning and will be the next largest day in the window after Monday). While some uncertainty remains on exact wind conditions for Tuesday given the model run to model run fluctuations, I'll say that confidence is very slowly increasing that we'll see light+ E to ENE wind develop through the morning on Tuesday. Stay tuned.
Wednesday should be down to smaller leftovers in the head high+ range with favorable ENE to NE wind.
Next Update: By Saturday night, May 22nd (local time)