Official Surfline Forecast: Excellent Conditions And Surf Continue For The Corona Open Mexico Presented By Quiksilver

Brief Overview:

• Nice S swell peaks Thursday, then eases Friday-Saturday as new SW swell blends in
• Favorable wind/conditions continue through Saturday; pristine mornings, rippable afternoons
• Surf slows mid-window; stronger SW swell will return for 18th-19th, but conditions are in question

Ethan Ewing looked strong in his Round of 32 heat on day 2 of competition, making use of the rippable waves on hand at Barra de la Cruz and showcasing his unique style. - WSL / Thiago Diz

THURSDAY 12th:

Rippable surf holds, 5-7' faces. Offshore wind.

SWELL/SURF: Favorably-angled S swell tops out and holds; new, long-period SW swell creeps in through the afternoon. Most consistent day through the start of the window, surf mostly in the head-high to slightly overhead range with occasional sets going 2' overhead. Surf holds steady all day.

WIND: Variable to light offshore wind early will trend light onshore from the S through the middle of the day. Light to moderate side-offshore WSW/W wind develops for the afternoon.

FRIDAY 13th:

Easing surf, 4-6' faces early down a notch by the afternoon. Offshore wind.

SWELL/SURF: Favorably-angled S swell eases through the day as westerly SW swell builds to a peak. The morning is down a touch in size from Thursday and the better sets will be a little more inconsistent. Surf is mostly in the chest to head-high range with occasional sets going overhead through the morning. Surf eases a notch later in the day.

WIND: Variable to light offshore wind early will trend light onshore from the S through the middle of the day. Light side-onshore SW wind develops for the afternoon.

SATURDAY 14th:

Easing surf, 4 occ. 5' faces early down a notch by the afternoon. Offshore wind

SWELL/SURF: Favorably-angled S swell is down to leftovers, as westerly SW swell lingers. The morning offers the best size of the day, surf mostly in the chest- to occasional head-high range. Surf eases a notch later in the day.

WIND: Variable to light offshore wind early will trend light onshore from the S through the middle of the day. Light to moderate side/side-offshore WSW/SW wind develops for the afternoon.

SUNDAY 15th:

Surf bottoms out, 3 occ. 4' faces. Offshore wind

SWELL/SURF: Leftover blend of S/SW swells bottom out for the smallest day of the window. Surf is mostly in the waist occasional chest-high range. Surf size is steady all day.

WIND: Variable to light offshore wind early will trend light onshore from the S through the middle of the day. Light to moderate side/side-offshore WSW/SW wind develops for the afternoon.

MONDAY 16th:

Building surf, 3 occ. 4' faces early up to 3-5' faces late. Onshore wind

SWELL/SURF: New SW swell is on the rise al day, strongest late. Surf is mostly in the waist occasional chest-high range through the morning with sets to head high over the second half of the day.

WIND: Light to moderate E wind early will trend SE/S through the middle of the day. Light to moderate sideshore SW wind develops for the afternoon.

Swell/Surf Outlook

Rippable surf through the end of the week; favorably-angled S swell tops out Thursday and holds nice energy into Friday morning while it eases. Size is primarily in the head-high to slightly overhead range Thursday with lully sets going a couple feet overhead. Surf will come down just a touch in size on Friday then by Saturday, Barra drops into the chest- to head-high range. Note, there will also be some long period - but less-favorably angled SW - swell blending in for Barra starting Thursday and peaking Friday into Saturday. The direction on this swell will focus most of the energy up at the top of the point and not wrap as much energy down it. That said, lingering SSW swell Friday into Saturday will help the cause.

The conditions outlook through the end of this week remains excellent - variable to light offshore wind early trending weak onshore from the S midday before side/side-offshore winds build from the SW/WSW each afternoon. Surf is expected to slow through the middle of the window. A low sliding east below French Polynesia the last couple of days sends a modest SW swell for the 16th-17th - it looks contestable, but will likely come in a notch below the swells that started the window and the wind/conditions outlook has been trending less favorable.

The primary feature of interest for the end of the event window remains an impressive low underway below French Polynesia - initially developing near New Zealand and tracking east towards the central South Pacific. The storm has been outperforming guidance and we are of high confidence it will deliver a rise in SW swell to close out the event window; surf creeping in late on the 17th, building the 18th, then a likely peak in size on the last day of the window (the 19th).

While the direction of the swell isn't perfect, enough deepwater swell size and swell period are expected to wrap overhead surf down the point at Barra. The point of contention through the end of the window will be the conditions, however. The reputable global weather models remain in good agreement there will be a couple to several day period of unfavorable easterly winds starting around the 16th-17th as a tropical wave pushes off Central America. There is potential for improving conditions by the final day of the window, but due to the tropical nature of the feature bringing the problematic conditions our confidence in specifics this far out remain especially low.

Next Update: Thursday evening, August 12th (local time)