WEDNESDAY 15th: Building 4-7' faces AM, up to 6-8' faces later PM. Onshore N wind AM to early PM, S/SE late PM
SWELL/SURF: Mixed swell builds through the day - shorter period N/NE and long period NW. Look for jumbled but decent size surf to build into the overhead to a couple feet+ overhead range for the afternoon/evening.
WIND: Side to onshore NE to N wind through the first half of the day and probably into the afternoon. Wind could shift light/variable onshore around mid afternoon and then to offshore SE late in the day/evening.
THURSDAY 16th: 6-10'+ faces AM, easing through the PM. Offshore ESE wind but jumbled surf SWELL/SURF: Mixed swell will continue with jumbled surf but improved wind and overall conditions. Both short period N/NE and longer period NW swell will be strongest in the morning before easing for the afternoon. WIND: Light to moderate ESE wind and clean surface conditions.
FRIDAY 17th: Leftover 4-5' faces AM, smaller PM. Offshore E wind SWELL/SURF: Leftover NW swell down to head high or less first thing and fading into the afternoon. WIND: Moderate to possibly breezy E to ESE tradewinds.
SATURDAY 18th: Very small but slowly building to 4-5' faces PM. Breezy offshore wind SWELL/SURF: Small, new long period NW swell should slowly build through the day. Stay tuned. WIND: Moderate to breezy E trades.
SUNDAY 19th: Holding 4-6'+ faces. Offshore E-ESE wind SWELL/SURF: Small NW swell should fill in a bit more from Saturday, gradually picking up through the day. WIND: Moderate E to ESE trades.
Forecast Outlook The surf will rebuild over the next 24-36 hours from a couple sources. Long period NW swell will come from a distant storm that peaked in strength over the last couple days. As discussed in previous updates, this storm was quite strong with peak seas in the 40' range, but it took a lousy track - heading almost due north and away from the islands when it was strongest. That will limit size and consistency. This swell is starting to slowly fill in on Buoy 01 now and has been a little underwhelming at this early stage. We'll see it fill in at Sunset all day on Wednesday with an eventual peak late Wednesday through the first half of Thursday. Then fading by Thursday afternoon and dropping into Friday.
The other swell that we'll see is short period (8-11 second) N to NE energy. This will come from the low drifting across the state in the next 48 hours. This storm is also responsible for the wind switch late Wednesday and Thursday and may produce heavy rain for the back half of the week. This short period swell won't provide any additional size to the long period NW - it will probably be a bit overhead on its own - but will make for more jumbled up conditions.
Further out, we've got a couple swells lining up over the last few days of the event window. The first of these swells should slowly build over the weekend with a probable peak Monday and into Tuesday. This is from a strong but distant storm that has thus far behaves close to forecast model guidance.
Small but contestable waves are expected on Sunday (head high to slightly overhead), with slightly larger waves on Tuesday (head high to a foot or two overhead). Wind looks favorable for the entire swell at this point. Stay tuned.
Further out, models unfortunately continue to back down on size of the swell for the 22nd-23rd. It looks contestable but small at this point with sets head high to a bit overhead.