The WSL Final 5 With Rosy And Kaipo: What The Leaderboard Will Look Like After Mexico

After the Jeep Surf Ranch Pro presented by Adobe we have seen Gabriel Medina and Carissa Moore become the first two surfers to clinch their spots in the WSL Final 5 and punch their ticket to the Rip Curl WSL Finals at Lower Trestles, where the 2021 World Champions will be crowned during a single day of competition this September.

Heading into the Corona Open Mexico presented by Quiksilver, the second-to-last stop of the regular season, there are still another eight spots still up for grabs. For the men, the three Brazilians, Medina, Italo Ferreira and Filipe Toledo are in pretty firm control of the top three spots, but there's about 2,000 points separating fourth from eighth on the leaderboard, meaning the race for the all-important fourth and fifth positions are still wide open.

For the women, seven-time World Champ Stephanie Gilmore sits precariously in fifth with a whole pack of talented surfers right on her heels.

Before things kick off at Barra De La Cruz, the WSL's Rosy Hodge and Kaipo Guerrero broke down their predictions for what the WSL Final 5 picture looks like before the CT then turns towards the last event in Tahiti later this August:

If The World Title Was Decided Today, How Would The Current WSL Final 5 Play Out?

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Coco Ho, Ronnie Blakey, and Stace Galbraith focus on one single question. If the Rip Curl WSL Finals started right now, how would it all unfold?

Rosy's Picks For The Women's WSL Final 5 Post-Surf Ranch

1. Carissa Moore

First of all, congratulations to Carissa on the gold medal. That was so amazing and so inspiring. She's got the gold. She already clinched her spot at the Rip Curl WSL Finals. She has no pressure and seems to be head-and-shoulders above everyone at the moment. I could imagine her putting in an elevated performance in Mexico and really taking her surfing to an amazing place.

2. Johanne Defay

Johanne has been building to this moment. Just look at her results, she got three fifth-place finishes in Australia before her second at Rottnest and breakout win at the Surf Ranch. She's been so consistent and so focused, I really like where her head is at. This may be her best opportunity to vie for a World Title. Plus, she's had some time off during the Olympic break to reset and refocus. Between Mexico and then Tahiti, Johanne should finish really strong this season.

Is this the year Carissa Moore sweeps surfing and wins an Olympic gold medal and the World Title? It's looking like a strong possibility at this point. - WSL / Evan Campbell

3. Sally Fitzgibbons

I think we're going to see the Aussies really make a move in Mexico. Starting with Sally, I think they're going to be able to leverage all that pointbreak experience. While she didn't medal, I think Sally is going to be so fired up after the Olympics. She's always fired up, but being around all those world-class athletes seems like it would really inspire her. She may also be looking at this moment as her best chance to win her first World Title. She's so hungry and determined, and she's do talented on a right point, that's a pretty lethal combination at this stage in the season.

4. Stephanie Gilmore

There are only a few thousand points separating a handful of these girls right now, and I think that gives Steph a huge opportunity to solidify her spot in the WSL Final 5 in Mexico. I mean, what else do we have to say about how beautifully she surfs right points? Growing up on the Gold Coast, she's going to be able to take all that experience to Mexico and really apply it. This is one of those places we're really going to be able to enjoy her style and fluidity. And I think she knows that this is a really good opportunity to get herself into that World Title conversation. Let's not forget, if she wins the Title this year she breaks her tie with Layne Beachley for the most-wining competitive female surfer.

5. Tyler Wright

After missing an event, Tyler has some ground to make-up. Plus, she's had a few mixed results over the season, but I really think she could shine in Mexico. She's had some time off during the Olympic break to hit reset. Surely, she'll be inspired by her brother's medal-winning performance. And people may forget how good she is in right-hand pointbreaks. She made the Quarterfinals or better on the Gold Coast for ten years straight. And she's also had huge results at Honolua Bay. I expect to Tyler to feel pretty comfortable in Mexico and get herself back in the conversation.

'People may forget how good Tyler is in right-hand pointbreaks. She made the Quarterfinals or better on the Gold Coast for ten years straight.' -Rosy Hodge - WSL / Kelly Cestari

Kaipo's Picks For The The Men's WSL Final 5 Post-Surf Ranch

1. Gabriel Medina

Led by Medina, the top three spots are a lock with the Brazilians. Medina's spot in the Rip Curl WSL Finals is already set, but you know he wanted to win that gold medal, so he still has some motivation. He's one of only a handful of surfers on Tour that actually gets better when it puts on a jersey. His surfing goes to an entirely next level when he's in a heat. And I don't see why he wouldn't bring that to Mexico.

2. Filipe Toledo

I think you have to look at Filipe as the clear favorite in Mexico. I mean, is there anybody better in running, four- to six-foot right-hand point surf on Tour right now? Look what he did last month at the Surf Ranch. And look at what he's done at J-Bay. And I think just like J-Bay, he's going to redefine how Barra is ridden. Plus, he's probably got a little motivation after watching Medina and Italo in the Olympics. I could see him being really hungry to win the World Title, and between Mexico and Trestles, he very well could.

Gabriel Medina will be looking to put his innate backhand tube-riding skills to good use at Barra De La Cruz. - WSL / Tony Heff

3. Italo Ferreira

Of course Italo is going to show up. And he's going to do his thing and be a threat every time he paddles out. He could take his Olympic gold medal momentum and run with it, but I'm also thinking that at some point he has to come back to earth a little and that may happen in Mexico. Barra can be tricky on the backhand and it won't be as easy for him to find those big air sections. But this is Italo, so that may not matter. He's definitely going to hang in the top three, but Filipe may overtake him in the ratings.

4. Kanoa Igarashi

To be honest, I really struggled this one because I could see Griffin Colapinto coming on strong in Mexico, but Kanoa is such a disciplined competitor. He's coming off of winning the silver medal for Japan, and I just think he's really going to take advantage of the momentum he has and run with it. He's finishing sixth on the WSL Leaderboard, and he finished third at the Surf Ranch. He's peaking at the right time of the season, and like I said, with the focus he has, I think he sees a clear path to get himself into the World Title conversation.

5. Morgan Cibilic

I think Morgs is one of the best stories of the CT this year and I'm sticking with him in Mexico. He's proven what a savvy competitor he is all season long, and given he's been on the West Coast since the Surf Ranch, he's definitely feeling comfortable in the Pacific at the moment. He's been ripping Lowers with Ethan Ewing, Griff and the boys lately, and I think now that he's feeling more himself and the rookie jitters are in the rearview mirror, he's going to continue his dream run.

Heading in the upcoming CT stop in Mexico, Kanoa Igarashi will be looking to make a run at the WSL Final 5. - WSL / Cait Miers

The Corona Open Mexico presented by Quiksilver kicks off on August 10, 2021. Don't miss a minute of the action.