Brief Overview:

  • Solid surf Monday through Wednesday; gradually easing Thu-Fri
  • Wind looks favorable early week (light AM, light onshore PM Mon-Tue)
  • Stronger afternoon onshore flow returns second half of the week

Please note that surf size below is given in face height.

MONDAY 13th: Building 5-8' faces AM becoming 6-8 occ. 10' faces through the afternoon. Light/variable wind early AM trends light+ onshore for the afternoon
SWELL/SURF: Strong, long period SSW swell continues to build in with solid sets running well overhead by the second half of the day. Consistency should improve through the day as the swell fills in.
WIND: Light/variable wind in the early morning trending light onshore W for the mid to late morning and builds from the WSW 5-8kts for the early afternoon. Wind drops back off by the evening. Note - there's a chance for patchy fog through the first half of the morning but skies should clear for the afternoon.

TUESDAY 14th: Holding 6-10' faces through the day. Light/variable wind early AM trends light+ onshore for the afternoon
SWELL/SURF: Strong, long period SSW swell should fill in further - likely not much bigger than late Monday, but consistency should improve with the peak of the swell and long period energy of the next SSW/S swell will be building in.
WIND: Light/variable wind in the early morning trending light onshore SW for the mid to late morning and builds from the SW 4-7kts for the afternoon. Wind drops back off by the evening. Note - there's a chance for patchy fog through the first half of the morning but skies should clear for the afternoon.

WEDNESDAY 15th: Continued 6-8 occ. 10' faces through the day. Light/variable wind early AM trends moderate onshore for the afternoon
SWELL/SURF: Strong, long period new SSW/S swell peaks as the initial SSW swell lingers. Overall size will gradually ease through the day.
WIND: Light/variable wind in the early morning trending light onshore W for the mid to late morning and builds from the W 8-10kts+ for the afternoon. Note - there's a lingering chance for patchy fog through the first half of the morning but skies should clear for the afternoon.

THURSDAY 16th: Easing 5-8' faces through the day. Light/variable wind early AM trends moderate onshore for the afternoon
SWELL/SURF: Solid SSW/S swell eases through the day. Should be a nice morning for Lowers but afternoon onshore flow is stronger than the start of the week.
WIND: Light/variable wind in the early morning trending onshore W for the mid to late morning and builds from the W 6-10kts for the afternoon.

FRIDAY 17th: Easing 4-6 occ. 7' faces through the day. Light/variable wind early AM trends light to moderate onshore for the afternoon
SWELL/SURF: Leftover SSW/S swell remains rippable while trending down through the day. Should be a nice morning for Lowers and afternoon onshore flow lightens from previous days.
WIND: Light/variable wind in the early morning trending onshore W for the mid to late morning and builds from the W 6-10kts for the afternoon.

Surfline Forecast: Rip Curl WSL Finals Set To \ Surfline Forecast: Rip Curl WSL Finals at Lowers Trestles in San Clemente, California. - Surfline

Swell/Surf Outlook

No shortage of surf is lining up through the balance of the event window thanks to a very active South Pacific storm track. The largest and most consistent surf is on track for the start of the workweek, Monday through Wednesday. The only caveat early week is the potential for fog through the early to mid-mornings. Thursday and Friday will still have good size surf but will gradually trend down in size from earlier in the week.

September 13th-15th: Solid surf builds in and peaks

Very long period SW to SSW swell crept up to close out the weekend, the front end of what will be larger, pumping surf Monday through Wednesday. The first swell was generated by a large, strong fetch that slipped past New Zealand over a week ago. While relatively impressive from a strength perspective the storm was zonal, meaning that the strongest wind and swell was aimed toward South America versus Southern California. The good news is this storm got the oven warmed up for the following storms. Successive storms pushed out from below New Zealand over several days, the first peaking in strength below French Polynesia and the next strongest in the central South Pacific.

The first solid SSW swell - due to build at Lowers on Monday - was pumping in Cabo today, a great one-day indicator for the fabled point. Pair that with satellite derived wave height data that showed the swell cross the equator and approach 10 degrees north latitude Saturday afternoon, and we anticipate a strong build through the morning Monday ahead of a solid afternoon. The first swell likely peaks overnight into Tuesday. Surf holds on Wednesday as reinforcing SSW/S swell energy fills in. The pair of storms responsible for these swells plowed through the central South Pacific a week ago - both exceeded model guidance for strength and were impressively large. Based on how much swell is propagating north, it is very likely these swells will continue to outperform swell model guidance which is showing 4-4.5' of deepwater swell at peak.

Look for surf running in the overhead to a few feet overhead range Monday through Wednesday, with big sets up to 10'+ faces. Consistency and the number of waves in the sets should be above average for a Southern Hemisphere swell as the storms took favorable tracks with good high pressure support on their west to northwest flank. Each storm also had the advantage of moving over an already excited sea state from previous storms.

These swells will just slowly wind down through the back half of the week, although overhead surf will prevail at Lowers all the way through Friday.

Wind and conditions for the start of the workweek continue to look favorable as a weak upper-level low is expected to meander towards the region. The primary concern through the first half of the workweek is the potential for coastal fog early each morning thanks to a healthy temperature inversion - at this point Monday looks most suspect. Overall, light/variable wind and clean surf is expected early Monday and Tuesday before light onshore flow develops through the mornings. Light onshore W to SW wind should keep conditions reasonably clean in the afternoons, especially given the size and power of the surf. The mornings should remain clean through the balance of the week, but by Wednesday it appears light to moderate+ westerly flow will return for the afternoons.

Next Update: Monday evening, September 13th (local time)

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