Updated Wednesday, 8th May 2019
EVENT WINDOW: May 8-12th 2019
Some good surf for the first couple of days but then becoming small and sloppy over the weekend.
The main feature on the chart at the moment is a low pressure centered in the western approaches of the English Channel, with a strong westerly fetch on its southern flank. This is currently pushing a large, short-lived pulse of swell into the Bay of Biscay. Over the next 24 hours this system will disappear off into the North Sea leaving fairly weak pressure gradients in the North Atlantic. Another low pressure develops northwest of the Azores by around early Saturday, but this is way too late to generate any swell within the contest window.
On Thursday morning expect some large, average-quality swell with wave heights hitting ten feet or so, accompanied by fairly clean conditions in light southwest winds. The swell drops steadily during the day, down to about four or five feet by late evening. Winds pick up to light or moderate onshores from the north for a while in the afternoon before falling light and variable in the evening.
On Friday the swell continues to drop gradually but maintains reasonable quality; with wave heights around four feet or so at first dropping to below three feet by the evening. Winds are light and variable in the morning, with light onshores from the north during in the afternoon and early evening.
On Saturday, the swell remains small, struggling to get above three feet all day, with quite poor conditions as winds pick up to moderate onshores from the northwest. Winds are expected to drop during the evening but the swell also drops to a very weak one or two feet.
Sunday sees small, short-period swell with wave heights around two feet, accompanied by moderate perhaps fresh onshores from the north.
Forecast reliabilities are high for most of the contest period, with the greatest uncertainties associated with the local wind conditions.