Updated Thursday, 26th September 2019
EVENT WINDOW: September 24-29th 2019
A solid swell arriving on Friday, gradually tapering off through the weekend, with mostly good wind conditions.
The main feature on today's chart is an expansive area of low pressure currently centered just west of Scotland, moving very slowly east and gradually weakening. A strong westerly fetch on its southern flank has already generated some large swell for west and northwest exposures. A developing peripheral low, currently just off Newfoundland, will move quickly east and deepen, expected just west of Ireland by Saturday. High pressure over the Azores will persist for the next few days, with a moderate northerly flow on its eastern flank affecting Portugal.
Tomorrow Friday sees the arrival of a solid, long-period swell from the northwest, initially mixing with a previous swell but then becoming more dominant. Wave heights start off at around five feet, then steadily ramp up, hitting six to eight feet towards the end of the afternoon. Winds are moderate cross-offshores from the north, becoming fresh NNW for a while around mid-afternoon.
On Saturday the swell gradually decreases but remains lined-up with wave heights around six or seven feet in the morning, dropping to about five feet by late afternoon. Winds are moderate to fresh cross-offshores from the north, backing NNW for a while during the middle of the afternoon.
Sunday, the last day of the competition, sees a more definite weakening of the swell, dropping to three or four feet, perhaps less by the end of the day. Wind conditions are still good, with light to moderate cross-offshores from the north.
Forecast reliabilities are very good throughout, although still not 100 per cent for the exact arrival time of that swell tomorrow.