• WEDNESDAY: 5-7′ faces increasing to 6-8'+, lumpy but manageable - likely to run
  • THURSDAY: 6-8′ faces, conditions OK - likely to run
  • FRIDAY: 5-7′ faces, conditions OK - likely to run
  • SAT-SUN-MON: 4-5′, conditions looking unfavorable (onshore)

Bottom line: A healthy Southern Hemi swell will show over the next couple days, but local conditions are an issue due to developing tropical activity just offshore. Best days to run the event at this point are Wed-Thurs-Fri - not ideal, but certainly contestable. Last few days of event window (18th-20th) are not looking as good at this point - smaller, with bad wind. Furthermore, we'll also need to keep a watchful eye on this weekend for possible landfall of this storm on El Salvador.

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TODAY 15th: Drained out much of the morning on the negative low tide with 4-6' occasional 7′ faces, then picking up to 6-8'+ faces by midday (likely sooner) and over the afternoon as the tide and swell fill in more. Conditions remain mixed-up and with onshore wind developing. SWELL: The SW-SSW swell builds in further and tops out (15-16 seconds), while secondary local windswell mixes in. Surf will be a bit slow for a good chunk of the morning during the drained out, negative low tide. Surf will be strongest during the mid to higher tide later today with the bigger sets running 2-3 feet overhead-plus. Likely to see a few waves pushing near double overhead during the best tide window. Above average consistency. Surf will be a bit jumbled and sectiony all day due to short period windswell mixing in and onshore wind. WIND: Closely watching the nearby storm spinning offshore. Light sideshore NE devil wind in the early to mid-morning, then clocking more onshore from the east, then southeasterly direction later in the morning and into the afternoon, as well as increasing in strength. Stormy weather. TIDES: -0.1' low at 9:09am, 7.5' high at 3:15pm, -0.6' low at 9:47pm

THURSDAY 16th: 6-8'+ faces. Conditions to improve from Wednesday with lighter/variable wind. SWELL: Mid-period SW-SSW swell (14 seconds) holds fairly steady with waves running head high to 2-3 feet overhead or so - biggest/best during the mid to high tide window and a bit smaller during the drained out low tide. Local SW-WSW windswell continues to join in and surf is still a bit mixed-up, especially at the top section of the point. Above average consistency continues. WIND: Continue to watch offshore storm. At this point, wind is looking light/variable in the morning, then a light+ to moderate onshore breeze develops from the S to SW for the afternoon. TIDES: 6.5' high at 3:49am, -0.2' low at 10:02am, 7.5' high at 4:09pm

FRIDAY 17th: 5-7' faces. Lighter/variable wind and OK conditions. SWELL: Looking to be similar to Thursday, but a notch smaller. The primary SSW swell is slowly easing, while secondary WSW windswell continues to mix in. Sets running head high to a little overhead - strongest early to mid-morning before the tide gets drained out late morning, then again later in the afternoon when the tide fills back in. Fair consistency. Surf likely to remain on the sectiony side with the swell-mix, especially at the top of the point. WIND: Continue to watch offshore storm. At this point, wind is looking light/variable in the morning, then a light+ to moderate onshore breeze develops from the S to SE for the afternoon. TIDES: 6.6' high at 4:44am, -0.1' low at 10:55am, 7.4' high at 5:02pm

SAT-SUN-MON 18th-20th: Holding 4-5' faces. Possible unfavorable easterly wind returns. SWELL: The old/easing SSW swell levels out and lingers as reinforcing SSW-S energy moves in. Surf size remains contestable through the weekend and into Monday with sets around the chest-head high zone. Secondary WSW windswell continues to mix in. Fair consistency. Surf likely to remain on the sectiony side with the swell mix, especially top of the point, in addition to unfavorable wind. WIND: Watching tropics closely. Storm may circle back and deliver another bout of side-onshore easterly winds during this time. Potential for landfall.

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We'll need to continue taking each day at a time, as so much depends on the progress of the developing storm just offshore. The precise movement and strength of this nearby storm will directly impact the local conditions, which are constantly changing from day-to-day, even hour-to-hour. The daily breakdown above is how things are shaping up at this point, but please keep in mind, this info is highly subject to change as more data becomes available during this highly volatile situation. The most trusted models are in general agreement, but not in perfect sync with each other - even little differences in the precise track and intensity can and will result in different outcomes.

The latest model projections indicate this developing system will meander just offshore for the rest of the week. The "better" days lining up for us (Thurs/Fri) are when this storm swings just far enough away to allow for a wind scenario that is a little more favorable to prevail. However, this storm may then swing back toward El Salvador over the weekend and conditions fall apart once again. In fact, there is a possibility for this storm to even make landfall on El Salvador this weekend.

NOTE OF CAUTION - Aside from impacts on surf, the potential is also very high to see periods of damaging winds, heavy rain/flooding, and lightning throughout El Salvador. We'll need to keep a close eye on this weekend. Stay tuned.

THE INCOMING SOUTHERN HEMI SWELL: New SW-SSW swell (220-200°) will build in further this morning and top out later this afternoon. Surf will easily run head high to overhead at Punta Roca, with the larger sets reaching 2-3 feet overhead and occasionally a little bigger (strongest during the mid to higher tide). Consistency should be above average as well. This energy will hold up fairly steady through much of Thursday, but starting to lose a little gusto by the afternoon. Then a very slow easing trend will ensue thereafter through the rest of the event window, while the swell angle slowly shifts more southerly.

Further out - Modest push of reinforcing, shorter/mid-period SSW to S swell to move in over the 19th-20th. This more southerly swell will feel some shadowing by the Galapagos Islands, but it should help keep things from fading too quickly. Local conditions for that time are uncertain at this point, as we may still be dealing with a pesky tropical system.

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