Corona Open J-Bay

Updated: Thursday night, July 14th (Local Time)

Brief Overview:

· Still solid but easing surf Friday with side shifting onshore wind

· Fading leftovers over the weekend

· Small SW swell Mon PM-Tue with highly uncertain wind forecast Tue

FRIDAY 15th: 8-10'+ faces early ease to 6-10' faces by day's end. Light sideshore wind early should trend to light/moderate onshore by the afternoon.
SWELL/SURF: Solid SSW swell continues, and the dawn patrol session should be similar in size to Thursday afternoon/evening. A gradual decreasing trend prevails through the day.
WIND: Light sideshore NW wind in the early to mid morning, trending lightly onshore for the later morning. Light to moderate onshore E wind (6-12kts) is expected to build for the afternoon, strongest later in the day.

SATURDAY 16th: 4-6'+ faces early fade through the day. N/devil wind all day.
SWELL/SURF: SSW swell steadily fades through the day, strongest in the morning.
WIND: Moderate N/devil wind all day 6-10kts.

SUNDAY 17th: Leftover 3' faces. Breezy N/Devil wind.
SWELL/SURF: Minor SSW swell leftovers, around waist high or less.
WIND: Moderate NNW wind early becoming breezy by the afternoon 15-20kts.

MONDAY 18th: 3-4' faces bump up through the PM. Light side/offshore AM
SWELL/SURF: Small, shadowed SW swell builds in through the day but likely maxes out with lully sets in the shoulder high range.
WIND: Light side-offshore (NW to WNW) wind early trends onshore E to SE for the afternoon.

TUESDAY 18th: Lully 4' faces through the day. Uncertain wind forecast
SWELL/SURF: Small, shadowed SW swell holds, with direction shifting slightly more southerly than Monday. Size and consistency should bump up a touch.
WIND: Uncertain wind forecast but should be southerly wind - could be anywhere from favorable SSW to SE. Stay tuned.

Swell/Surf Outlook

Friday morning will continue to pump and sunrise should be very close to what we saw this afternoon and evening. Look for a gradual decreasing trend through the day with both size and consistency coming down. The big change will be local wind as we'll trend back to light NW/N devil wind in the morning before onshore easterly flow takes over for the afternoon. Wind should be light through around mid day before moderate onshore flow takes over through the mid to late afternoon.
Fading and smaller leftovers from the SSW are expected over the weekend - still decent size Saturday morning but quite small by Sunday. We'll also see moderate (Sat) to breezy (Sun) sideshore N wind.
A small, shadowed SW swell remains in the cards for early next week, picking up Monday afternoon/evening and continuing Tuesday. This does not look like much, less than half the size of the current swell and maxing out around shoulder high. There is also quite a bit of uncertainty on Tuesday's wind with a very different picture painted by our more trusted global models. It will probably be southerly, although whether that's offshore SSW/SW or onshore SE will need to be worked out in the next few days. Stay tuned.
There is a chance for some shorter to mid period S swell around the final day of the event window (Thursday the 21st) from a small low that forms close to the coast early next week. This possible area of low pressure is the same feature that gives us a low confidence wind forecast on Tuesday - the GFS model shows it but the European model does not. So, the possibility of surf from it is also low confidence. Even if it does come to fruition, the resulting surf currently looks smaller than what we expect to see on Friday.

Next Update: Friday night, July 15th (local time and if necessary)

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