When it comes to picking a winner at the Rip Curl WSL Finals the ten surfers' form at Trestles must be taken into account. Now granted, the data set is a little dated as the last CT event held at Trestles for both Men's and Women's was in 2017, but given the experience of many of the Finalists, there's still a good tranche of numbers that can be crunched:
Medina's results are surprisingly poor at Trestles. He's never made a Championship Tour Final here. A single Semifinal finish in 2015 is his best result. Out of the seven CT events he has surfed at Trestles he has logged four throwaway 13ths, including the last two he competed in. Is this just a statistical anomaly, or are the cobbles the equivalent of the exposed thermal exhaust port on The Death Star? That is the only weakness in an otherwise foolproof competitive act? He'll be desperate to prove it's the former.
Ferreira has only surfed in a CT event at Trestles three times, managing a relative paltry return of two 13ths and a 9th. However, those events from 2015 to 2017 were at the very start of his career and he has gone into overdrive since 2018. The defending World Champion has plenty to prove at Trestles, and there is no better time to do it than in the WSL Finals.
Toledo has the best record at Trestles of all the men's Finalists and is the only surfer to have won there -- the last time it was held in 2017. Before that victory, he had two consecutive Semifinals, and while his first two starts were less successful, he looks like the man to beat. Plus, San Clemente has been his home for almost a decade. You can see why he may be a favorite.
Being the only American in the field, the Santa Barbara local has the longest competitive history with Lowers. Coffin won the NSSA Boys Title in 2006, courtesy of solid results at Trestles, and in the 2009 event made the Final of both the Men's and Juniors at the wave. In the Big Leagues, he has posted less impressive results landing two 13ths in his first two years on Tour. He'll need to conjure those junior glory days to have a whiff of a World Title chance.
The 2021 rookie has never competed at Trestles and so comes into the event with a clean slate. Recently, he's been logging plenty of free-surfs though. Cibilic has shown throughout the year will that he will punish any surfer who doesn't take him seriously. And if he wins six heats, he'll be World Champion.
Many of Moore's record 11 NSSA National Titles were built around competitive success at Trestles, a place she's been competing at since she was seven years old. It's no surprise then that she took that grom success into the senior ranks, logging a ninth-place finish in 2014, a win in 2015 and a quarterfinal finish in 2016. Now if she can win two more heats at Lowers, she'll be the owner of a fifth World Title.
Given she has a style that should suit the performance wave, the Hawaiian-raised, Brazilian's record at Trestles is relatively poor. In three attempts her best result has been a 9th. Of course, those performances came in her first years on Tour. She has improved dramatically in the last five years and comes into the Finals as the World No. 2.
Fitzgibbons has been a consistent presence at Trestles throughout her career. Her best result was a runner-up finish in 2014, followed by a couple of 5ths and a throwaway 13th. If she can go just one place better at the WSL Finals than she did back in 2014, the four-time World Champion runner-up will, finally, have reached her ultimate goal.
The seven-time World Champion won her the first women's CT at Trestles back in 2014 with a legendary performance that included a perfect 10-point ride and a 9.50 backup. She's appeared in the most Finals at Lowers out of all the competitors (two), has the highest Average Heat Score (15.31), the highest win percentage (75%), and shares the record for most heat wins (9). If she can recreate any of those numbers, a record eighth World Title, and history, remain firmly in the cards.
The Reunion Island surfer's best result at Lowers came in her rookie year in 2014, where she made the Semis. Her next three performances were less spectacular, though a 5th place in 2016 showed her strengths at the break. But like Weston-Webb, her best CT surfing has been done since Trestles was taken off the schedule. A breakthrough result here could land her the sport's ultimate prize.